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Plot spanning S01E04-S01E06 of "Spice and Wolf" doesn't make much sense to me.

Lawrence and Holo are accosted by a stranger who tells them that Trenni silver coins are going to appreciate. Lawrence and Holo later learn that the opposite is true: the purity is going to reduce and thus causing the coins to eventually depreciate. They go to the Milone Trading Company and devise a plan together. So what exactly is the plan? In the anime, it is only explained that they predict that a lot of people are going to act on the false lead and buy Trenni silver coins, and if they act early, they can defeat the rival Medio Trading Company. But exactly how?

Also, I am not sure how the final profits are calculated. In episode 4, after their meeting with Marlheit, Lawrence says to Holo his cut is 10%, which he expects to be 2000.

トレニー銀貨が三十万、いや、うまくすれば四十万は動くんだぞ。商会の利益が一割として、もし二千枚入れば、俺もついに立派な商店師だ。

In episode 6, when the dust settles Marlheit reminds Lawrence that it is agreed upon by both sides that Lawrence's cut is 5% and gives him 120 silver coins, fees deducted. He says Milone purchased 307,112 silver coins. (回収した銀貨は三十万七千百十二枚) Then he says the king is paying 350,000 in cash (即金にて三十五万枚相当の貨幣で支払って頂けるとのことです). But what is the revenue (pre-costs) in this for Milone? 350,000 - 307,112?

Then he also gives Lawrence 1000 which he explains comes from the rival company.

Marlheit: メディオ商会はよほど特権が欲しかったと見えます。それに価値が下がると分かっている銀貨を集めてもいたのですから。それは負債を抱え込んだのと同じです。確実に儲けが見込める商売がどうしてもやりたかったのでしょう。向こうから即決の値段を提示してきましたよ。
Lawrence: しかし、千枚も
Marlheit: ええ、安いものです。支払いは銀貨で宜しいですか。

This dialogue is not very clear. So, in order to get a special license, the rival Medio company is paying a lot of money to round up coins on the market, and they want the coins owned by Milone, so they paid Milone some money for their coins? And Milone then gives Lawrence his cut? But I thought Milone was selling those coins to the king.

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  • I consider this a mere trifle, so I didn't use the spoiler markup. Meta discussions seem to suggest only major plots should be marked with spoiler.
    – Eddie Kal
    Mar 27 at 4:34
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    Related, I guess: How did the “silver devaluation” scheme work?
    – Aki Tanaka
    Mar 27 at 4:39
  • @AkiTanaka Part of my question is a duplicate of that question, but the most highly voted and accepted answer is wrong, at least according to the story's worldview. "the rumors that the amount of silver is going to increase... makes people think that it's profitable to sell their coins now (because they think that after the new coins arrive, the value of the old ones will decrease)." But in S01E02, the person spreading misinformation makes it pretty clear: when purer new coins arrive, people can profit by exchanging old coins for new coins. So the logical move is to buy old coins now.
    – Eddie Kal
    Mar 27 at 4:53
  • If the coin gains some value, then, your old coins have more value too. Think on it as a coin exchange, and stocks. If today you got some dollar changing (for example) one euro to one dollar, and tomorrow the euro value are lower, if you change these dollar you got more money. If you apply this to purchases, if the value of the coin are better, you can purchase more items with the same money. Mar 28 at 16:34
  • @SakuraKinomoto Right, I totally get that part. That's why the accepted answer in the linked post is wrong. I am just unclear on how exactly Lawrence and his partner cash in on this.
    – Eddie Kal
    Mar 28 at 16:41

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